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November 26, 2006 - 15:42 — the IceMaker

623 AM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A GOOD CERTAINTY THAT THE STORM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THERE REMAINS STRONG UNCERTAINTY IN THE TYPE AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR FERGUS FALLS TUESDAY AND THEN TO KENORA
ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL RIDE NORTH INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING AND PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN IS A THREAT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK WILL BE THE COLDEST AND THE PRECIPITATION
MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN
THIS AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AREAS SOUTH OF A FARGO TO PARK
RAPIDS LINE MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
Link to Special Weather Statement

The good news is they arent talking things like Blizzard conditions... could be all rain, theres a fair amount of uncertainty in the path of the Low System. Should pass to our North West.

Ice is nice

4695

‹ Ice Report -West Arm - Dead Lake, Maine, MN FINAL ICE REPORT: Primary Site: Dead Lake, Dent Minnesota ›
November 28, 2006 - 05:20 — the IceMaker

Weather Update it's good!

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO CONFIRM THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WAS INDUCING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER CWFA. IN ADDITION LOW PRESSURE WAS EVIDENT OVER WYOMING WITH STRONGEST DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED NEGATIVE PHASE OF PNA WITH DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS MEAN 500MB TROUGH.

.SHORT TERM.(TONIGHT-THURS)...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON IMPENDING WINTER STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CWFA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE CONCERNS PRECIPITATION FORM AND AMOUNT. WILL USE GFS FOR FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MODEL APPEARING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

EXPECT LOW PRESSURE ATTM OVER WYOMING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
PROVINCE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THIS PROJECTED TRACK APPEARS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO PEMBINA TO BAUDETTE LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WITH POTENTIAL AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE. FURTHER SOUTH THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAI FOR A PERIOD ON TUESDAY...THUS CUTTING DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BASED ON ABOVE THINKING HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAJORITY OF CWFA EXCEPT FOR LAKES COUNTRY AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF LOW CENTER WILL PROMOTE TEMP/HEIGHT PROFILE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ALL LIQUID WITH PERHAPS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...

... INTO THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND RESIDUAL WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. ATTM APPEARS WINDS WILL BE STRONG

November 28, 2006 - 16:06 — the IceMaker

Weather Update! It's a GREAT FORECAST!

I think it was Winston Churchill who said; "There's nothing quite so exhilirating in life as being shot at and missed".

Forecasts are looking pretty good, the storm system is just moving into the sailing area. Snow isn't even mentioned in some of the forecasts. A little rain zamboni to clean of the blown dust on the lake, and cold to lock in some EPIC ICE.

For those who check their own weather... the primary site, (unlikely now to change) is almost equidistant between Fergus Falls and Perham, Minnesota.

my forecast.com